Friday, October 14, 2011

The Ants Go Marching Up The Hill

The Occupy Wall Street protesters are without a leader. Not so much in the sense the media has been trumpeting, the lack of a cohesive message within the ranks of anti-war, pro-choice, millionaire-hating and anything-green-loving activists. Instead, this gang of disgruntled citizens is without a presidential hopeful to rally behind against the onslaught of Perrys, Romneys and now Cains.

This protest is more to scold those perched on Capital Hill, than it is about humbling the one percent that live behind its tax-credit walls. Instead of going directly after President Barack Obama, since there is no viable alternative candidate, the protesters are taking aim at his political Achilles’ heel: big money.

Probably close to a majority of those marching voted Obama into office. Deafened by the chants of “Yes we can!” no one really understood what kind of change to expect, other than having the first African-American president. Maybe, that was enough. Whereas Obama was able to put down one demon (OBL), another one popped up in the form of global sovereign debt. The tangled web of collateralized debt and bad loans unraveled a bit only to get wound back up in the global sovereign debt crisis that is taking down countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. The can is kicking back in the form of recession and mounting unemployment.

This protest is more about broken promises than broken bank accounts. But, instead of going after political reform like the Tea Party, the masses decided to camp out in city parks. Maybe something, or someone, will come out of this soup of cardboard signs and angst to lead this wayward crowd in one direction…towards the next election.

Friday, October 7, 2011

'Till Death Do Us Part?

Whose name is behind Google?

In the same breath that people mourn the loss of Apple's great leader, Steve Jobs, many are speculating as to the future, or demise, of his revolutionary company. Will Apple ever be as great? Will Jobs’ mortality overshadow Apple's mythical reach?

I question the foresight, or ego, behind building a company around one man. Jobs was a marketing phenomenon, but he didn’t see it as a problem that when he sneezed Apple’s shares dipped.

Gone are the days of the magician. When Jobs last walked on stage in his blue jeans and black turtleneck, we were putty in his hands. This week, when Jobs' successor, Tim Cook, walked onto the stage, he was putty in ours, molding himself to what consumers needed to keep up the cultish allure of the iPhone. Granted, Jobs didn't leave his legacy without a pipeline of iProducts to come. But, every decision Cook makes will be followed with a "What would Jobs have done….?"

The past has proven the downfall of empires built on iconic CEOs. Post-Bill Gates Microsoft has remained steady after Gates stepped down, but is struggling to keep up with the competition, namely the Mac. Disney, on the other hand, was never the same after the death (or cryogenic freezing) of its creative genius. And with both of those examples, if asked who succeeded them, well, I'd need to Google the answers.

Will Apple's story be a lesson to the Mark Zuckerbergs of the world whose popularity, or notoriety, is the momentum behind the products? Maybe its better to take a step behind the product, instead of in front?

To answer my own question, there is little doubt that Google will stand by itself, without co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

The Calm Before The Storm

The earth shook this week. For some, on the east coast, there was a 5.8 tremble. I didn't feel it because, like always, I missed the party for being upstate. For others, the tectonic shift was Steve Jobs resignation and/or Libya's Ghadafi firing....literally, even his traveling tent went up in smoke, poof! For me, it was seeing that my portfolio is actually in the green for once.

The markets ended the week happy as we await the next big natural disaster to hit our coast, Hurricane Irene. On one international business news web site, the top economic stories included the weather forecast and Burger King adding a new sandwich, the California Whopper. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of impact, if any, Irene will have on the markets come Monday. Disasters in the past, such as Japan’s earthquake and the tornadoes in the Midwest, have effected the markets only because of what those specific regions produced. Japan slowed down manufacturing and the Midwest bit into commodities. There may be a slight reactionary slip in the Dow, the workplace may close for a day and the MTA is taking off, but what does New York City really have to lose, as Wall Street prepares to work from home over the next few days.

The impending drama of a hurricane is giving investors a needed break to focus on, well, life. There has been little mention of global meltdowns, kicking cans or soft patches. Other than the Fed peeping out of his hole to tease the markets with the possibility of further action, and the IMF keeping the focus on banks, we’re all just taking in the calm before the storm.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Gold Digger

Women in India, collectively, hold more gold than the U.S. Federal Reserve, is what the World Gold Council’s Managing Director for Investment said on CNBC a couple of days ago. Of course, he meant to say the U.S. Treasury, but that's beside the point. Gold has been hitting record highs as of late. Even Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is running for the pot at the end of the rainbow. He's said to be looking to nationalize his country's reserves. People buy gold for mainly two reasons: fashion and fear.

There has even been chatter about going back to the gold standard in order to solve the global debt crisis. The U.S. is the largest holder of physical gold, outside of the typical Indian household. We dropped the gold standard – dollar to gold – several decades ago out of fear that foreign holders of our currency would cash in for the metal and bankrupt the nation. Today, our biggest fear is that China will cash in their bonds and send us right down the river. It seems that we may be working our way to a debt standard.

So, why don't we bounce back to gold standard? Instead of holding and buying debt, banks would be dealing with something a bit more tangible than an IOU slip. First, we have to understand that gold does not have any intrinsic value, it's price is based on market sentiment. Gold is priced to how we feel. It's like a mood ring of sorts. Going back to the gold standard now would mean having to bring up the value of gold, which has been kept at artificially low levels even in the face of inflation. This would sink the dollar while making foreign reserves more viable. It's the us or them scenario.

On an individual level, Indian women may have the answer stockpiling their matching gold sets in their closets and banks vaults. While the gold necklace does make that sari look fetch, it also loosens the economic noose we have around our necks.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Finance & Famine

Two different shortages of capital: bank reserves in Europe and water in Somalia. 

For countries like Italy and Portugal, the catastrophe is man made. The situation is dire in that it's symptomatic of a global economic meltdown. We've come to realize how thin a wire our governments our walking when creating the illusion of fiscal responsibility. Whats at stake are jobs, houses, livelihoods. One slip could derail the rollercoaster ride our markets are currently riding.

In Somalia, the drought, and subsequent famine is natural, though a case can be made for it being our fault too. The capital is water and crops. There will be no bailouts or restructuring. Nations will not hold emergency meetings and presidents will not address the situation from their podiums. It's not the first time whole villages have starved, nor will it be the last. The loss will be in the thousands, not trillions; lives, not budgets. But, in the end, Somalia will subsist. The tragedy will be a headline buried with the bodies of so many.

Please help Somalia by contributing either through the link below or one of your own choice.

http://www.irusa.org/

Monday, August 8, 2011

On the one hand, we have the analysts, economists and editorials downgrading Standard and Poor's ability to rate anything above a used car. And on the other, investors are fleeing, and I don't use that term lightly, the stock market and sinking their reserves into the very thing that S&P is downgrading, bonds. So, it's pretty safe to say that today's market plunge is less about the downgrade and more about skiddish market sentiment running amuck on a possible recession. 

When S&P released the downgrade announcement on Friday, everyone must have rolled their eyes and continued their already frantic pace selling off stocks. That's how I pictured the scene. S&P's downgrade was expected, with Fitch and Moody's rating agencies still holding on to their cheerleader status on US debt. The chatter today is saying the downgrade is more a rip on U.S. politics, than the government's ability to pay. 

S&P's exact words were, "The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy"

Someone remind me, where exactly do the ratings agency fall in the whole check and balance scheme that we learned about in 8th grade social studies?

Regardless, the inevitable blame game ensues. Politicians point their fingers at each other and then at the rating agencies. Not that's its not deserved. The agencies' biggest sin to date is supporting the mortgages-backed-debt that pushed this economy off the ledge. So why are they still determining what's worth buying? And why are we still listening? If not them, than who will we listen to? China?


Next time, we're hopping back over the pond with France's possible downgrade on the horizon. Merci.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Four Walls and a Ceiling

Apartment hunting is a little bit like dealing with a trillion dollar deficit. One has to prioritize.

Can I afford to lift my rent ceiling in order to live close to work in an apartment where i don't trip over the heating plate in order to use the bathroom. I'd have to cut spending, live without internet, cable and eating out. I won't be saving much, but I'd enjoy my space.

Or should I try to save money this year? It would mean a much smaller space, but in the longterm, money saved means more space to maneuver next year. I could even splurge on  Internet. But, the claustrophobia now would limit my desire to stay home. I'd be miserable. The lack of a decent kitchen means I'm eating out more. So, am I really saving?

My apartment search and the U.S. debt crisis ended in the same way. It came down to the wire, but we decided to raise the ceiling. As a county, we save by spending. This is the cost of living the 'baller' life. 

Next week....downgrades and market volatility. 

Welcome back!!!